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  • Brave Caucus Predictions

    • Posted on Jan 31, 2016

    Here is this morning's (1-31) column where I go out to the twigs on the end of the limb. Still, I've been right twice before going out there.  Eight years ago today, before the 2008 Iowa caucusses (cauci?) I predicted Obama would win not just Iowa, but the November election.  So I feel very slightly qualified to do the same today for tomorrow's first political test.   


    Not to brag, but days before our 2008 caucuses, I correctly predicted the outcome, not just of Iowa’s caucuses, but the 2008 election.  

    Here’s what I wrote here on January 30, 2008:  

     “The GOP will collectively decide that they have confidence in McCain’s presidential appearance and nominate him, despite his advanced age and moderate stance on a number of social issues. 

    “The Democrats will opt for making history . . .and nominate Obama.  Hillary will go down fighting, but she will definitely go down. 

     “So come November, we will be choosing between the old candidate who looks presidential, John McCain, and the young candidate, Barack Obama, who looks like no other candidate in our history.  

    And we will choose Obama.”

    Then I explained why voters wanted real change, citing George W’s Bush’s presidency as one of the weakest in history. This was pre-Palin, incidentally. 

    Again on October 6, 2012, just before the Romney-Obama election, I wrote:  “I predict here and now that Obama will win the election over Romney, simply because Romney is the weaker candidate on all fronts.”

    Now, eight years later to the day before the Iowa Caucuses, I’m ready to predict again. Three out of three?   

    Remember that no one has witnessed an election season remotely close to the current political roil and muddle.    

     A billionaire loudmouth who’s never supported anyone but himself runs in front of the GOP pack? Beside him, Bartleby the Scrivener of politics, “I prefer not to” Cruz?   And all the other uncivil Republican candidates carping at each other endlessly and destructively? 

    Democrats supporting the oldest candidate ever to run who proudly proclaims he’s a “democratic socialist” and means it?  And his opponent, the same candidate who lost to Obama in 2008?   Have we entered the Twilight Zone?  

    All pundits and prognosticators have been, are, and will be, trumped (sorry) by this election season’s off-the-charts unpredictability. Only wild cards sit in the deck, including a possible Michael Bloomberg candidacy.  

    Nevertheless I forge ahead, knowing being right isn’t completely out of the question.  

    So:  Sanders will win Iowa tomorrow. Democrats will flirt with idealism and enthusiasm in the form of the Bern, and this will certainly affect Clinton’s campaign.  She must admit that Bernie’s the candidate of change, and much of what he says makes good sense.   

    Then when Sanders loses the Democratic nomination, he will graciously throw his support Clinton’s way, which she will more than graciously accept. 

    A semi-enthusiastic Democratic party will support the Clinton/Joaquin Castro ticket overwhelmingly as their best hope of continuing and enlarging Obama’s legacy. 

    Trump wins our caucus tomorrow.  Still,  the GOP, after months of turmoil, gets the message and  realize that Trump’s blustery emptiness only works for their hard core. 

    He alienated too many potential voters, and Republican straight-ticketers aren’t a majority.  

    They will nominate Rubio, their young candidate of (mild) change. 

    So “experience” will face off against “change”—as in 2008--only with the parties reversed. And who will win?   

    This time, Clinton’s experience wins, because Rubio’s own party fatally undercut him with incessant in-fighting.  Essentially, the GOP will self-destruct.   

     Mark my words.   




    Go comment!
    Posted in
    • Predictions
    • Conservatives/Liberals
    • Politics
  • Open Letter to Trump Supporters

    • Posted on Jan 17, 2016
    Here's this morning's Waterloo Courier column--wanted to speak directly to Trump supporters, of which there are more than a few in Iowa.  

    Dear Iowa Republicans Who Support Trump: 

    I’ve tried to understand why you support Candidate Trump. I may be missing something, but here’s what I’ve heard recently:  

    • he’s not afraid to say what he thinks, politically correct or not 
    • he’s a billionaire, so can’t be corrupted by money. 
    • he brings up taboo topics we should discuss, like our country being overrun by dangerous immigrants. 
    • he projects strength and confidence, unlike Obama, who’s indecisive and weak
    • he has run huge and complex companies where he learned managerial and administrative skills 
    • as a political outsider he’s entertaining.  Compared to him all other candidates are dull, as he puts it.    
    Yet few seriously believe he will become President Trump. Doesn’t this give you pause? 

     It’s simple, really.  Your opinions have been shaped by one source:  Donald Trump.  He’s told you what you want to hear and believe, evidence be damned.  
    Remember:  he’s one candidate who has nothing to lose by losing.  Trump, after all, will return to being billionaire Donald Trump.  He’ll have fodder for another book and a larger ego, if that’s possible.  

    Keep in mind:  He lies constantly.  Fact checkers rate his assertions as “false” or “pants on fire” —far more than other candidates. He tosses verbal bombs and hopes they’re true.  

     Supporters believe him, true or not.  He even celebrates his lying, insisting they’re true after they’ve been proven false. Witness the Obama birther nonsense and the video of Muslims cheering 9-11 in New Jersey.   

     Worse, he’s incapable of thinking seriously or coherently about anything.   When have his assertions made sense beyond repeated bluster?  His Mexican wall, for instance. Walls have never worked to create anything but separation and bad will, and a thousand mile actual wall (not fence) will cost billions and take years, according to engineers. 

     Mexico will pay for it?  Has he ever explained how that will work in serious credible detail?   He can’t and won’t, since it’s nonsense.  Google “Trump’s Wall” and read the first ten entries.  Incidentally, more Mexicans are leaving the U.S. than arriving, making a wall moot.  

     Worst of all—he doesn’t believe anything he says.  He has reversed positions on nearly everything.  He’s a Christian?  Not actively, say leaders of his own church.  He’s pro-life?  Now he is; he was pro-choice before. No path to legal citizenship?  
    Actually he supports a form of amnesty—a “touchback” plan that will send immigrants home only to return quickly and become citizens. 

     Supports traditional marriage?  Hardly; he’s on his third marriage. 

     If you trust Donald Trump to say or do anything consistently, true to his word, you’re deluded by Trump himself.   He seems to have no moral core.  
    To return to my last column’s idea of balance, Trump is an utterly unbalanced candidate who will crash over sooner or later, and hard. 

     That’s inevitable, though taking your political party or the country down with him is not.    

     Your choice.      
    Go comment!
    Posted in
    • Politics
    • Conservatives/Liberals
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